AA - 2020

Author: Tony Clarke
MD of the Rawson Property Group
24 November 2020

Several contributing factors set to potentially see property market through these tough times

After last month’s bleak Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement by finance minister Tito Mboweni, South Africans are settling in for a long and uncertain road to economic recovery. There’s no doubt that our country is in a tough financial position. However, it’s positive to see the government taking responsibility and looking to its spending to address the budget deficit, minimising the effects on the consumer as far as possible.

When it comes to property, there are several factors contributing to the market’s current resilience that will continue to bolster it through these tough times. Affordability is one of the biggest of these contributors, responsible for much of the post-lockdown boom in residential sales activity.

Not only are property prices subdued, thanks to a long period of slow growth, but interest rates are at record lows, and lenders are highly motivated, offering up to 100% loans. This has created a climate of affordability – particularly for first-time buyers – that we haven’t seen for many years.

While the forecast economic contraction of 7.8%, average medium-term GDP growth of 2.1%, and tax increases of R40bn over the next four years could eat into buyers’ income, other conditions are likely to remain in buyers’ favour.

No dramatic price growth on the cards

Property prices should begin to rise in response to increasing demand, but we’re not expecting dramatic price growth for some time to come. Interest rates will also likely start climbing from mid-2021, but at a very conservative rate that shouldn’t cause problems for buyers unless they’ve bought at the absolute limit of their affordability.

There may also be a few new positive influences bolstering property’s performance if Mboweni’s plans come to fruition. The R2.2bn allocated to social housing and R96bn for student housing will not only be a powerful community upliftment initiative, but it will also boost construction and provide new property investment opportunities.

Putting an end to loadshedding

Less direct support will be felt from the additional 12,000MW of new electricity capacity sourced from independent power producers, and the R12.6bn allocated to employment initiatives. We hope these plans will put an end to load shedding, which could be detrimental to businesses trying to recover from lockdown, and improve unemployment, helping to get money flowing through our economy once again. This would boost consumer spending power and improve buyers’ ability to take advantage of favourable property market conditions, thereby supporting healthy growth in the sector.

While we are confident that the property market will weather the current challenges, a lot is also riding on the government’s ability to follow through on its economic recovery plans. Property has always been one of the most stable and secure investments to have during unpredictable economic times. Current buying conditions will only make those benefits more pronounced. Those able to take advantage will not regret their decision as long as they’ve done their research, partnered with an experienced professional, and resisted the urge to overreach on their spending power.

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